Like hotels, cruise lines must gain an understanding of the Chinese market, as well as educate Chinese travelers about the concept of cruising. Because this is a new vacation option for mainland tourists, cruise lines will need to sell the market on the romance of the sea and the ship as a destination, and give consumers a sense of the entertainment and other diversions available on board a modern ocean liner. And they’ll need to figure out where Chinese tourists want to voyage, for how long, and at what time of year. Industry leader Carnival Corporation entered the mainland China market in 2006 with its Costa brand: an up-market offering sailing from Shanghai and from southern China. Royal Caribbean, playing catch-up, recently announced plans to begin sailing from Shanghai in 2007.

Airlines will face their own challenges. Strategically, they must serve profitable markets, either directly or through alliances and networks. This means obtaining and retaining access to attractive routes and landing slots at key airports, as well as ensuring that the government and regulators maintain an equitable operating environment. International airlines can expect competition from private domestic carriers, such as Hainan Airlines Company, which will use their internal routes as springboards to international markets. They should also anticipate a competitive environment that features one or more mainland-based mega-carriers.

The relative inexperience of mainland travelers offers a significant opportunity for travel agents, currently mostly small, local businesses. The mainland market represents an opportunity for an organization with sufficient vision and resources to establish a national presence that enhances service standards, increases professionalism, and achieves economies of scale. However, the growing popularity of the Internet poses the same threat to travel agents — and the same opportunity for e-travel companies — in China that it does elsewhere.

Finally, financial-services providers such as insurance companies will be watching the development of this market. Travel insurance and credit cards are closely linked to the travel industry and have been important revenue and profit generators in markets around the world.

Companies looking for growth in China’s outbound travel sector will not be disappointed. Pent-up demand is considerable, disposable incomes are rising, and travel restrictions are being eased. In many ways, the market is still in its infancy, with few clear leaders. However, companies can benefit from this trend if they anticipate the immense changes in China’s outbound travel sector and build their business accordingly.

The global travel industry is bracing itself for a new wave of tourists out of China. Like the droves of Americans who explored Europe in the 1960s and the Japanese who traveled the world in the 1980s, the tastes and preferences of China’s new international tourists will have an enormous influence on the entire tourism ecosystem.

Currently, only about 2 percent of the Chinese population travels outside the mainland — well below the 15 percent of Americans who travel abroad. But China is catching up. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the mainland’s international passenger traffic will grow at an annual rate of 9.6 percent between 2005 and 2009, while various other agencies estimate that China will be included among the top four sources of outbound tourists by 2020.

What is unclear, however, is the quality and cost of the experiences that these tourists will seek: bus tours of Paris’s outer arrondissements, or private tours of the Louvre? Spanish street food, or tasting menus at El Bulli?

The earthier options seem to be more popular thus far. Ask for a description of the typical Chinese tourist, and observers from the industry are likely to use such words as value-conscious, shopping, gambling, and chain-smoking. Or, as the Economist put it in a June 2006 article, “Typically, a Chinese tour group will choose the cheapest hotel — even if it is 50km (30 miles) outside a city — travel by bus and eat only Chinese food…. Posh hotels, resorts and restaurants will have to wait for their Chinese windfall.”

These descriptions contain elements of truth, but they don’t offer a complete picture. As the New York Times recently noted, a significant subset of the overall population of Chinese tourists will be quite affluent and willing to spend accordingly. Consider this: China’s 31 million international travelers spent US$15.2 billion in 2005. At nearly $500 per person, mainland travelers spent more per capita than international tourists from the United States, France, or Japan.

Successful tour operators are offering upscale packages that promise deeper knowledge of a city, region, or country. They are also introducing lifestyle-oriented products, like fine-dining and wine tours that have proven popular with other nationalities, and adapting them to the increasingly sophisticated tastes of mainland travelers. Current offerings include a six-day winter trip to Kyushu, Japan, for skiing and visits to the hot springs, at a price of RMB9,000 (approximately $1,155) and a seven-day “ancient civilization exploration” tour of Egypt for RMB11,000 (approximately $1,410).

Shopping continues to be popular among mainland travelers. But China’s growing manufacturing muscle poses a challenge for overseas retailers: How do you sell to a tourist from a country that makes just about everything? One option is to appeal to Chinese consumers’ brand-conscious nature, with a focus on items with labels that can be shown off. Smart sellers will remember the trend in China in the 1980s and 1990s of leaving tags on sunglasses and jackets to show off the brand. Thus, Louis Vuitton handbags, Swiss watches, and Chow Sang Sang gold are popular. Service will also matter: Hong Kong retailers often provide service in Mandarin and accept the renminbi (the official language and currency, respectively, of the mainland).

Gambling is also a top travel pastime for Chinese people. Australia, North Korea, and Singapore are launching or intensifying efforts to attract mainland high and low rollers. However, the profitability of this business will be hit by higher marketing costs and greater competition. Larger construction and maintenance costs will also play a role as customers come to expect a luxurious, Las Vegas–style experience.

Companies within the travel and tourism industry stand to benefit from an abundance of opportunities, but must remain cognizant of the significant pitfalls. Hotels will need to keep costs down to meet mainland travelers’ value expectations. At the same time, opportunities exist both for hotel groups that can migrate customers from the lower and middle tiers into more expensive properties, and for chains that can develop a strong brand in China and use it to attract mainland tourists when they travel abroad.

“三顶桂冠一摘，还了我一个自由自在身。身上的泡沫洗掉了，露出了真面目，皆大欢喜。”

    我现在想借这个机会廓清与我有关的几个问题。

　　辞“国学大师”

    现在在某些比较正式的文件中，在我头顶上也出现“国学大师”这一灿烂辉煌的光环。这并非无中生有，其中有一段历史渊源。

    约摸十几二十年前，中国的改革开放大见成效，经济飞速发展。文化建设方面也相应地活跃起来。有一次在还没有改建的大讲堂里开了一个什么会，专门向同学们谈国学。当时主席台上共坐着五位教授，每个人都讲上一通。我是被排在第一位的，说了些什么话，现在已忘得干干净净。《人民日报》的一位资深记者是北大校友，“于无声处听惊雷”，在报上写了一篇长文《国学热悄悄在燕园兴起》。从此以后，其中四位教授，包括我在内，就被称为“国学大师”。他们三位的国学基础都比我强得多。他们对这一顶桂冠的想法如何，我不清楚。我自己被戴上了这一顶桂冠，却是浑身起鸡皮疙瘩。

    说到国学基础，我从小学起就读经书、古文、诗词。对一些重要的经典著作有所涉猎。但是我对哪一部古典，哪一个作家都没有下过死工夫，因为我从来没想成为一个国学家。后来专治其他的学术，浸淫其中，乐不可支。除了尚能背诵几百首诗词和几十篇古文外；除了尚能在最大的宏观上谈一些与国学有关的自谓是大而有当的问题比如天人合一外，自己的国学知识并没有增加。环顾左右，朋友中国学基础胜于自己者，大有人在。在这样的情况下，我竟独占“国学大师”的尊号，岂不折煞老身(借用京剧女角词)！我连“国学小师”都不够，遑论“大师”！

    为此，我在这里昭告天下：请从我头顶上把“国学大师”的桂冠摘下来。

　　辞学界(术)泰斗

    这要分两层来讲：一个是教育界，一个是人文社会科学界。

    先要弄清楚什么叫“泰斗”。泰者，泰山也；斗者，北斗也。两者都被认为是至高无上的东西。

    光谈教育界。我一生做教书匠，爬格子。在国外教书十年，在国内五十七年。人们常说：“没有功劳，也有苦劳。”特别是在过去几十年中，天天运动，花样翻新，总的目的就是让你不得安闲，神经时时刻刻都处在万分紧张的情况中。在这样的情况下，我一直担任行政工作，想要做出什么成绩，岂不戛戛乎难矣哉！我这个“泰斗”从哪里讲起呢？

    在人文社会科学的研究中，说我做出了极大的成绩，那不是事实。说我一点成绩都没有，那也不符合实际情况。这样的人，滔滔者天下皆是也。但是，现在却偏偏把我“打”成泰斗。我这个泰斗又从哪里讲起呢？

    为此，我在这里昭告天下：请从我头顶上把“学界(术)泰斗”的桂冠摘下来。

    辞“国宝”

    在中国，一提到“国宝”，人们一定会立刻想到人见人爱憨态可掬的大熊猫。这种动物数量极少，而且只有中国有，称之为“国宝”，它是当之无愧的。可是，大约在八九十来年前，在一次会议上，北京市的一位领导突然称我为“国宝”，我极为惊愕。到了今天，我所到之处，“国宝”之声洋洋乎盈耳矣。我实在是大惑不解。当然，“国宝”这一顶桂冠并没有为我一人所垄断。其他几位书画名家也有此称号。

    我浮想联翩，想探寻一下起名的来源。是不是因为中国只有一个季羡林，所以他就成为“宝”。但是，中国的赵一钱二孙三李四等等，等等，也都只有一个，难道中国能有十三亿“国宝”吗？

这种事情，痴想无益，也完全没有必要。我来一个急刹车。

为此，我在这里昭告天下：请从我头顶上把“国宝”的桂冠摘下来。

三顶桂冠一摘，还了我一个自由自在身。身上的泡沫洗掉了，露出了真面目，皆大欢喜。

《病榻杂记》季羡林／著